The Padres’ offseason has been a whirlwind of speculation and uncertainty. While the team has made a few key re-signings and added Sung-Mun Song, general manager A.J. Preller has not done much to bolster the roster ahead of the 2026 season. With spring training approaching, there is still one star free agent who could be the perfect fit for San Diego: Framber Valdez. The challenge, however, is that the Padres are nearing their payroll limit for the upcoming season, and Valdez is not an inexpensive addition.

Despite the financial hurdles, the fit between Valdez and the Padres seems almost inevitable. San Diego’s projected rotation consists of four right-handed pitchers and just one lefty, J.P. Sears, who had his worst season in 2025. Adding an impact southpaw at the top of the rotation would significantly elevate the team’s potential.

In 2025, Valdez delivered a 3.66 ERA and a 3.37 FIP over 192 innings with the Astros. He has consistently thrown at least 175 innings in each of the last four seasons and has a career ERA of 3.36. His presence would complement Joe Musgrove and Michael King perfectly.

The main issue remains cost. A pitcher of Valdez’s caliber typically commands a high price, and the Padres may not have the available funds to meet his demands. So, how can the front office make this work?

Trade Xander Bogaerts

One possible solution involves moving Xander Bogaerts. The possibility of trading him has become more viable as player contracts continue to rise across the league. A deal would likely require additional assets, but Bogaerts’ $25 million AAV no longer looks as daunting when players like Bo Bichette earn over $40 million annually.

Potential fits for Bogaerts include the Yankees and Rockies. New York has the financial capacity and struggles at shortstop with Anthony Volpe, while Colorado might explore a Kyle Freeland-centered salary swap. Either trade would also require prospects, but if it clears most of Bogaerts’ money and allows San Diego to land Valdez, it could be a worthwhile move.

Trade Nick Pivetta

This option carries more risk but is more realistic. Pivetta is set to earn $20 million in 2026, with reduced salaries in 2027 and 2028. The concern is swapping talent for talent. Pivetta was the Padres’ best pitcher in 2025, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 3.49 FIP across 181.2 innings. Valdez can match that production, but improving upon it would be difficult.

Even so, the swap makes sense. Valdez’s left-handed arm fits better in a rotation dominated by righties, and his expected metrics favor him. Pivetta had a 3.95 xERA and a 3.85 xFIP, suggesting regression is likely. Valdez finished with a 3.74 xERA and a 3.34 xFIP.

Take Advantage of a Shrinking Market

This is the most optimistic path, as it avoids both a trade and an overpay—and it may also be the most realistic. Valdez wasn’t linked to San Diego early in the offseason, but the lack of suitors suggests he may need to accept a team-friendly deal.

The market for non-velocity-driven pitchers has tightened, and Valdez also faced a controversial moment in 2025 when he appeared to throw a fastball at his catcher after receiving a curveball sign. Both players described it as a miscommunication, and it’s unclear how much the incident has affected his market.

Regardless, if Valdez’s price continues to drop, Preller must be ready to act. Whether it’s a high-AAV, short-term deal or a lower AAV with a longer commitment, Valdez would be worth the investment. The longer he remains unsigned, the cheaper he becomes—and the more realistic a Padres signing becomes.

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