Kentucky vs. Texas Basketball: What to Watch and Predictions

adminsportify By adminsportify January 20, 2026

Kentucky Basketball has shown remarkable resilience in SEC play this season. Starting with some early setbacks, including losses on the road against Alabama and at home to Missouri, the Wildcats have managed to turn things around with three consecutive SEC wins, which has placed them back on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

The next challenge for the team is a home game against the Texas Longhorns, scheduled for Wednesday night at Rupp Arena. The game will start at 7:00 PM ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

Kentucky’s winning streak began with a dominant victory over Mississippi State at Rupp Arena. Despite trailing by double digits early in the game, the Wildcats made a strong comeback thanks to their defense and better ball movement, even though they had to deal with the loss of point guard Jaland Lowe in the opening minutes.

This was followed by an unforgettable road win at LSU, where Kentucky came from an 18-point deficit to secure a 75-74 victory with a last-second buzzer-beater from Malachi Moreno, reminiscent of Christian Laettner’s famous shot. This game also marked the first time since the announcement that Lowe would miss the rest of the season due to shoulder surgery after his injury during the Mississippi State game.

Kentucky then traveled to Knoxville and pulled off an upset against the No. 24 Tennessee Volunteers. After being down by 17 points in the first half, the Wildcats gradually closed the gap and took the lead in the final minute when Collin Chandler’s steal led to an assist to Otega Oweh, who drew a foul and converted the basket, ultimately leading to an 80-78 victory.

Currently, Kentucky stands at 12-6 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, tied for third in the conference.

Texas enters this matchup under new head coach Sean Miller, with a record of 11-7 overall and 2-3 in SEC play. Their season started with a 75-60 loss at Duke, followed by a close defeat at Arizona State in the Maui Invitational. However, Texas has also secured key victories, including a 102-97 win over NC State and a road upset against an Alabama team that previously defeated Kentucky.

Texas’ most recent SEC loss came in a narrow home defeat against rival Texas A&M, 74-70, after nearly rallying from a double-digit second-half deficit.

Kentucky and Texas met last season in Austin, where the Wildcats fell 82-78 due to a late-game collapse. With this being the only meeting between the two teams this season, both squads have a lot at stake as they aim to climb the SEC standings and improve their postseason resumes.

What to Watch For

Stopping Tramon Mark:

Texas senior guard Tramon Mark has been a consistent scorer in SEC play, averaging 18.4 points per game. He has a history of clutch performances, including key shots in crunch time to beat Alabama and Vanderbilt. He also scored a season-high 26 points in Texas’ win over Kentucky last season and 23 points in Rupp Arena against the Cats as a member of Arkansas during the 2023-24 season. Limiting his touches and forcing other players to create is crucial for Kentucky.

3-Point Defense:

Texas relies heavily on perimeter shooting, averaging 22.8 3-point attempts per game and making 34.5% of them. Four players account for the majority of these attempts: Mark, Jordan Pope, Simeon Wilcher, and Camden Heide. Kentucky, which has struggled to defend against 3-point-heavy teams like Louisville and Alabama, must contest every shot and prevent Texas from getting into a rhythm from deep.

Offensive Execution:

Kentucky has consistently fallen behind early in SEC games, largely because of its poor offense. While they have eventually gotten things going, this issue cannot continue if the Wildcats are going to win enough SEC games to make the NCAA Tournament. It’s time for Mark Pope to come up with a game plan that leads to his team executing for 40 minutes.

Texas Players to Know

Dailyn Swain (6-7, Jr., Forward):

Swain is averaging 15.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 1.7 steals while shooting 55.7% from the field and 26.2% from deep on 2.3 attempts per game.

Matas Vokietaitis (7-0, So., Center):

Averaging 15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 0.8 BPG, 65.1% FG. Big test for Malachi Moreno.

Tramon Mark (6-5, Sr., Guard):

Mark is averaging 13.4 PPG for the season while shooting 48.6% from the field, 33.3% from 3. However, he’s scoring 18.4 PPG in SEC play and has done well in the past against the Cats.

Jordan Pope (6-2, Sr., Guard):

13.2 PPG, 2.4 APG, 2.1 RPG, shooting 37.7% from 3 on 6.8 attempts per game.

Simeon Wilcher (6-4, Jr., Guard):

8.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, shooting 35.9% from 3. Capable secondary scorer.

Camden Heide (6-7, Jr., Forward):

6.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 53.4% FG, 48.1% from 3. A stretch 4 who is key to the Longhorns’ offensive spacing.

Kentucky Basketball vs. Texas Longhorns

Time:
7:00 PM ET on January 21
Location:
Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel
SEC Network
Online Stream
WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
Radio:
Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay:
WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
Rosters:
UK | UT
Stats to Know:
UK | UT
KenPom
UK | UT
Team Sheet
UK | UT

Odds:

FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so check back on Tuesday for those. The analytics all give Kentucky the edge. ESPN is most confident in the Cats, giving them a 76.4% chance to win.

KenPom
(71%), EvanMiya (69.8%), and BartTorvik (66%) also favor the Wildcats.

Predictions
Haslametrics picks Kentucky to win 80-73. EvanMiya (81-75), and KenPom (82-76) all have the Cats winning by six points. BartTorvik has the Cats narrowly escaping with an 82-77 win.

Kentucky has momentum and home-court advantage, but Texas boasts multiple scorers and a capable perimeter attack. If the Wildcats start fast, contain Tramon Mark, and shut down the main perimeter threats, they can dominate defensively and extend their SEC win streak.

I’m going with a 78-72 victory, Kentucky!
How do you see this one playing out? Let us know in the comments!
Go Cats!!

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