The Unlikely Rise of the New England Patriots

Long before this season kicked off, players on the New England Patriots could sense that they were far better than anyone believed. “We kept that to ourselves,” said defensive tackle Christian Barmore. It was a tightly held secret. Coming off back-to-back four-win seasons, the Patriots didn’t inspire much confidence to the outside world. Anyone beyond the land of candlepin bowling and red clam chowder thought they had a better shot at finishing at the bottom of the standings than reaching the Super Bowl.

Yet, somehow, the Patriots are now one win away from becoming the most improbable champion in decades. After grinding out a 10-7 road victory in the snow against the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship, the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl where they’ll meet the Seattle Seahawks, who advanced past the Los Angeles Rams 31-27 in the NFC. And as far as Super Bowl matchups go, this will go down as one of the unlikeliest in the modern history of the sport.

Ahead of the season, the Patriots were tagged as 80-to-1 long shots to win the Super Bowl—equivalent to a 1.2% chance. Only the 1999 Rams, at 150-to-1, have won the Super Bowl with longer preseason odds. The Seahawks weren’t given much better odds. At 60-to-1, they hoped to become the longest shot since 2001 when the Patriots first won it all with a young quarterback named Tom Brady.

But in this odd NFL season, the favorites collectively went bust. The Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers all exited the playoffs early. The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions missed the postseason entirely.

A Season of Surprises

The Patriots and Seahawks, however, developed far quicker than nearly anyone had imagined and stepped into that power vacuum. Now, they have tickets to the 60th Super Bowl. “We knew we had a chance from the jump,” said safety Craig Woodson. “We never doubted.”

Expectations for the Patriots were understandably low. They had just fired Bill Belichick’s successor, Jerod Mayo, after only one year on the job and had holes all over their roster. Quarterback Drake Maye was unproven entering his second season. But as it turned out, they were able to fix the types of problems that often take years to correct over the course of a single offseason.

To replace Mayo, New England landed Mike Vrabel, a three-time Super Bowl champion linebacker with the team who had won coach of the year leading the Tennessee Titans. A spending spree in free agency, where teams often wind up overpaying for talent, successfully plugged holes on the roster. Perhaps most critically, Maye, the No. 3 pick of the 2024 draft, emerged as the NFL’s breakout star.

With the boost of a new coaching staff and surrounding talent such as free agent receiver Stefon Diggs, Maye was arguably the top quarterback in the league during the regular season. And even though he’s had an up-and-down first trip to the playoffs, the 23-year-old has also done enough to become the second youngest starting quarterback in Super Bowl history after the Miami Dolphins’ Dan Marino.

Maye finished the AFC Championship with just 86 passing yards, but he also ran for the team’s only touchdown and darted for the first-down that sealed the narrow victory in the fourth quarter. “We still haven’t played our best football yet in these playoffs,” Maye said afterward. “I’m looking forward to seeing that and hopefully having that click in the Super Bowl.”

The Seahawks’ Unexpected Journey

The Seahawks’ surprising return to the Super Bowl, 11 years since their last visit, also began with a sudden improvement under center. First, they traded away quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders for a draft pick. Then, to fill the vacancy, they swooped in and signed Sam Darnold after he had led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-win season.

There was no shortage of skepticism around Darnold’s ability to replicate that success. After being selected No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft by the Jets, he had bounced around the league without achieving much until that one season in Minnesota. It didn’t take long for the switch to look like a stroke of genius. They extracted value for Smith, who wound up struggling miserably in Vegas. Then Darnold demonstrated that his success the year prior wasn’t a fluke. Paired with receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL in receiving yards, he finished second in the league in yards per pass—behind only Maye.

And on Sunday night, Darnold rose to the occasion. He finished with 346 passing yards, three touchdowns and several clutch completions down the stretch. Soon, though, he’ll need one more step up. In a couple of weeks, he’ll be facing off against Maye in the Super Bowl.