Game Preview: Bucks vs. Mavericks

The Milwaukee Bucks are set to host the Dallas Mavericks at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, January 25, with a tip-off scheduled for 6:00 PM. The game was initially postponed due to weather conditions that prevented the Mavericks from flying, but it has now been rescheduled.

The Mavericks come into this matchup with a record of 19-27, placing them 12th in the Western Conference. They have struggled away from home, posting a 5-14 record. In contrast, the Bucks are 18-26, sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference, and they have a 9-12 record at their home arena.

The Mavericks recently fell to the Lakers in a close contest, losing 116-110 after letting a fourth-quarter lead slip. The Bucks, on the other hand, dropped a 102-100 game to the Nuggets. A key storyline heading into this match is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence due to a right calf strain.

This will be the second meeting of the season between the two teams, with the Bucks having already taken the first matchup 116-114. The Mavericks are looking to avoid being swept in this rare two-game season set.

Despite the injuries, key players still play a significant role. Cooper Flagg averages 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, while Max Christie contributes 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. On the Bucks’ side, Giannis was averaging 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists before his injury. Kevin Porter Jr., who averaged 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, is also out due to a right oblique muscle strain.

Injury Reports

Bucks
– Giannis Antetokounmpo: Out (right calf strain)
– Alex Antetokounmpo: Out (G League – Two-Way)
– Kevin Porter Jr.: Out (right oblique muscle strain)
– Taurean Prince: Out (neck surgery)
– AJ Green: Questionable (illness)
– Gary Trent Jr.: Probable (illness)

Mavericks
– Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
– Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
– Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
– Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
– Klay Thompson: Doubtful (left knee; injury management)
– Cooper Flagg: Doubtful (left ankle; injury management)
– Max Christie: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
– Brandon Williams: Questionable (right knee soreness)
– Miles Kelly: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
– Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)

Why The Bucks Have The Advantage

The Bucks’ advantage starts with their shot profile. They are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, hitting 39.2% from beyond the arc. This is crucial without their primary downhill force, as they rely more on spacing, quick decisions, and volume shooting.

The defensive setup also favors the Bucks. With the Mavericks’ long list of injuries, especially if Flagg and Thompson are limited or out, the Mavericks’ half-court scoring becomes more dependent on role creation. The Bucks can load the paint, stay attached to shooters, and make every possession feel like work.

While neither team has been elite defensively, the Mavericks’ defense has been leaky all year, allowing 116.5 points per game. If the Bucks have a normal shooting night, they can create separation without grinding out perfect possessions.

Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage

The Mavericks’ case is built around winning “effort possessions” and making this game uncomfortable. The Bucks have been vulnerable defensively without Giannis as a backline eraser, allowing 115.5 points per game. This leaves openings for the Mavericks to stay in it even if they don’t shoot lights out.

There’s also a path on the glass. The Bucks are not a strong rebounding team by volume, averaging 40.6 rebounds per game. The Mavericks can keep themselves afloat by manufacturing extra chances, second shots, and free-throw trips.

Finally, the Mavericks’ best chance is to turn this into a game of discipline. Shortening the game, avoiding live-ball turnovers that lead to runouts, and forcing the Bucks to beat them with a long sequence of half-court jumpers rather than quick-hit threes in transition.

X-Factors

For the Bucks, Myles Turner is a massive swing factor because he changes what both teams are allowed to do in the paint. He averages 12.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, and his rim protection plus spacing makes it harder for the Mavericks to pack the lane or win with pure physicality. If Turner controls the interior without fouling, the Bucks can play more aggressively at the arc and still feel covered behind the ball.

Gary Trent Jr. is another key piece because this game will come down to who converts open looks. He averages 8.3 points per game and shoots 35.6% from three, and with creators missing, his job is simple: punish “help off the wing” decisions. If Trent hits early, the Mavericks’ help defense becomes a liability.

Bobby Portis matters too, as he’s the easiest way for the Bucks to survive the non-Giannis reality. He averages 13.1 points and 6.4 rebounds, and his ability to score without the offense being perfectly organized is critical in games like this. If Portis wins his minutes, the Bucks can keep their rotation stable instead of chasing offense.

For the Mavericks, P.J. Washington is the pressure point. He averages 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds, and his value is that he can punish smaller lineups, crash for extra possessions, and hit enough jumpers to keep the floor spaced. If Washington owns the glass, the Mavericks can keep this within a possession or two deep into the fourth.

Brandon Williams becomes a major lever if the Mavericks are short-handed in the backcourt. He averages 12.4 points and 3.7 assists, and the question is whether he can keep the offense connected for extended stretches without turning it into a forced-shot game. If he can generate paint touches and clean kick-outs, the Mavericks can keep producing decent looks even when the first action stalls.

Prediction

This game projects as a messy one, but I trust the Bucks’ shooting profile at home more than I trust the Mavericks’ ability to hold up defensively for 48 minutes with this injury context. If the Mavericks are missing Flagg and Thompson, the creation burden gets heavy fast, and that’s when the Bucks’ spacing can break the game open.

Prediction: Bucks 113, Mavericks 109