The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Journey

At the midpoint of the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like sure things to win the NFC South. Todd Bowles’ team had a 6-2 record heading into their Week 9 bye, and Baker Mayfield was in early-season MVP conversations. However, after a 1-7 stretch following the bye, the Buccaneers needed to win and get help in Week 18 to make it into the 2025 NFL playoffs.

Initially, it seemed that the Buccaneers’ Week 18 game against the Carolina Panthers would be a win-and-in scenario. But an unexpected twist came when the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on “Monday Night Football” in Week 17, creating a scenario where all three teams could end up tied for the top of the NFC South.

Current Playoff Situation

The Buccaneers managed to keep themselves in the playoff picture by defeating the Panthers 16-14 in their Week 18 matchup. Now, they will need assistance from the New Orleans Saints to secure a spot in the postseason.

Are the Buccaneers in the Playoffs?

Not yet. The Buccaneers have a 40% chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This is an increase from the 28% chance they had entering their Week 18 game against the Panthers. Originally, they were expected to have a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, but the Falcons’ win over the Rams complicated their path.

Tampa Bay cannot simply win and qualify for the playoffs. They must also see the Falcons lose or tie against the Saints to avoid a three-way tie at the top of the NFC South, which would allow the Panthers to potentially backdoor into the playoffs.

Playoff Scenarios for the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers can only make the playoffs by winning the NFC South. Here’s what it will take for them to win the division for a fourth consecutive season:

• Buccaneers win against the Panthers
• Falcons lose or tie against the Saints

The Buccaneers achieved the first part by beating the Panthers 16-14 on January 3. Now, they will focus on the Falcons-Saints game and find themselves in an unusual position of rooting for New Orleans, one of their top rivals.

If the Saints manage to win or ensure the game ends in a tie, the Buccaneers will make it into the 2025 postseason as the NFC’s No. 4 seed. They would then face either the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, or Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round, depending on the results of the two NFC West contests in Week 18.

However, if the Falcons win, the Buccaneers will fall out of the playoff picture.

NFC South Standings

After their Week 18 game, the Buccaneers are tied with the Panthers in the NFC South. Here’s the full look at the divisional standings:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
• Carolina Panthers (8-9)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
• New Orleans Saints (6-10)

The Buccaneers and Panthers split their season series and have identical divisional records of 3-3. In a two-way tie, Tampa Bay would have the advantage in the “common games” tiebreaker, allowing them to win the NFC South. However, if the Falcons win, it would create a three-way tie atop the NFC South. The Panthers would emerge victorious from that tiebreaker, as they would have a 3-1 record in games played among the three clubs.

That’s why the Buccaneers need help from the Saints to potentially secure a playoff spot.

Remaining Schedules

The Panthers have completed their 2025 NFL regular season schedule and finished with an 8-9 record. The Buccaneers also finished their regular season with an 8-9 record.

The Falcons have one final game scheduled for Sunday, January 4, against the New Orleans Saints (6-10). Buccaneers fans will have to wait until then to see the result of Atlanta’s final game.

NFL Playoff Picture

Here’s how the AFC and NFC stand entering Week 18:

AFC
* Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West winners)
* New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East winners)
* Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leaders)
* Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leaders)
* Houston Texans (11-5, wild card No. 1)
* Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, wild card No. 2)
* Buffalo Bills (11-5, wild card No. 3)
* In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

NFC
* Seattle Seahawks (13-3, NFC West leaders)
* Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North winners)
* Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, NFC East winners)
* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South leaders)
* San Francisco 49ers (12-4, wild card No. 1)
* Los Angeles Rams (11-5, wild card No. 2)
* Green Bay Packers (9-6-1, wild card No. 3)
* In the hunt: Carolina Panthers (8-9)

*Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.