A Unusual Playoff Scenario in the NFC South

TAMPA, Fla. — In a twist that few could have predicted, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now hoping for the New Orleans Saints to come out on top against the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are also rooting for the Falcons to win, as they find themselves in a unique playoff scenario.

The winner of the NFC South will end up with a losing record, but they will be crowned as division champions at home, watching the game on television. This unusual situation has created a strange dynamic among the teams involved.

Mayfield threw a touchdown pass to Cade Otton, and Chase McLaughlin kicked three field goals to help the Buccaneers secure a 16-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers in a rain-soaked game on Saturday. The Bucs (8-9) need the Saints (6-10) to beat or tie the Falcons (7-9) on Sunday to clinch their fifth consecutive NFC South title.

If the Falcons win, the Panthers (8-9) will claim their first division championship since coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton led them to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance 10 years ago.

The Buccaneers hold a two-team tiebreaker over the Panthers, but if the Falcons finish with an 8-9 record, the Panthers would have the three-team tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.

“I never thought I’d see a day where I’m rooting for the Saints,” said Bucs veteran linebacker Lavonte David.

Before the Bucs faced the Saints in October, Mayfield criticized the team for what he called dirty play, stating, “I do not like them.” Now, the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes rest on the Saints defeating the Falcons on the road on Sunday.

“A tie still gets us in,” Mayfield said with a smirk.

Bucs coach Todd Bowles plans to watch the game at home, while Mayfield mentioned that some players might have a watch party. “I think we’ll all be on the edge of our seats,” said Panthers coach Dave Canales. “Hoping for the Falcons to come through, but at the same time, at least we have that hope to look at. We have to look at ourselves and we have to make sure that in these championship moments that we play our best.”

The Buccaneers were 0-8 in games where Mayfield threw an interception before overcoming his ninth pick in the last eight games. “It was a gutsy performance,” Bowles said. “We gave ourselves a chance. It’s all we can ask for.”

After McLaughlin’s 38-yard field-goal try was blocked with just over five minutes remaining, the Panthers cut the lead to 16-14 on Bryce Young’s 8-yard TD pass to Jalen Coker with 2:27 left.

Key Moments in the Game

• Clutch 3rd down pickup between Baker and Otton
  
  CARvsTB on ESPN/ABC
  
  Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/EgkJFQGAlw
  
  — NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2026

Mayfield tossed a short pass to Otton for a 20-yard gain on third-and-4 to extend Tampa Bay’s drive and run off more time. The Panthers got the ball back at their 3 with 18 seconds and no timeouts left. The game ended on a desperate series of laterals that resulted in a fumble.

Mayfield connected with Otton on an 18-yard TD pass for a 7-0 lead as the Bucs scored a touchdown on their opening drive for the third straight game. It was Otton’s first TD of the season.

Down 10-0, the Panthers turned Christian Rozeboom’s interception into a quick score. Rozeboom returned the pick 20 yards to Tampa Bay’s 19. Young then connected with Tommy Tremble on an 8-yard TD pass to cut it to 10-7.

Jacob Parrish picked off Young late in the second half, and the Buccaneers got a 36-yard field goal from McLaughlin to take a 13-7 halftime lead.

McLaughlin kicked a 48-yard field goal early in the fourth to extend Tampa Bay’s lead. Carolina’s Ryan Fitzgerald missed a 54-yarder short on the opening drive of the third quarter.

Mayfield completed his first six passes before misfiring on a cross-field, 13-yard toss to Payne Durham, who was wide open in the end zone. The Bucs settled for McLaughlin’s 29-yard field goal and a 10-0 lead.