The Unlikely Journey of the New England Patriots

The New England Patriots’ journey to the Super Bowl has been anything but straightforward, especially on Sunday when second-year quarterback Drake Maye led his team to an AFC Championship victory in challenging conditions in Denver. Maye’s performance showcased his ability to adapt, relying on his legs and situational awareness when his passing game struggled.

When the Patriots took the field against the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game, they were aiming to complete what many media outlets and fans described as the easiest path to a Super Bowl in NFL history. However, this perception doesn’t align with the reality of the challenges the Patriots have faced.

Despite being labeled as having an easy road, the Patriots have actually encountered one of the most difficult paths in the 60-year Super Bowl era. This is due to the fact that no quarterback in NFL history has faced three of the five toughest defenses in the playoffs, ranked by total defense, and defeated all three. If the Patriots win on Sunday, Drake Maye will become the first to achieve this feat.

In addition, should the Patriots defeat the Broncos, they will join an exclusive group of teams that have bounced back from a season with five wins or fewer to reach the Super Bowl. The Patriots finished with a 4-13 record in both 2024 and 2023. The last team to accomplish this feat was also the Patriots, 24 years ago.

Cam Newton’s Criticism of the Patriots’ Path

One of the loudest voices among 2025 Patriots skeptics has been Cam Newton, a former Patriots quarterback who reached the Super Bowl in the 2015 season with the Carolina Panthers. On the Wednesday edition of his podcast, Newton called the Patriots’ path to a possible Super Bowl “a joke,” declaring, “The New England Patriots have had the easiest road to the Super Bowl in NFL history.”

Newton claimed that the Patriots’ Wild Card Round opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, were a “bottom-tier team,” and that in the Divisional Round, the 11-6 Houston Texans “were not the best version of that team.”

A Voice of Reason: Kay Adams’ Perspective

At least one NFL expert, Kay Adams of the daily Up & Adams cable TV program, sees the Patriots differently. In fact, Adams said on her Thursday broadcast, “If Drake and the Patriots win this game and make it to the Super Bowl, Drake has navigated one of the toughest paths a quarterback has ever had to navigate from a defensive standpoint. Ever. No hyperbole.”

Adams is referring to the fact that if the Patriots succeed in defeating the Broncos in Denver, Maye will have squared off against three of the top eight defenses measured by points allowed and Expected Points Added in the NFL. No quarterback in NFL history has ever done that in the playoffs and beaten all three.

In terms of points per game allowed, the Texans averaged 16.7, the best in the NFL. The Patriots scored 21 offensive points (plus seven by the defense) to win 28-16. The Chargers ranked eighth, allowing 19.8 points per game. The Patriots scored just 16, but allowed only three in the victory. Finally, the Broncos rank fourth, allowing 18.3 points per game.

Advanced Metrics Highlight the Difficulty of the Patriots’ Path

Measured by the advanced metric of Expected Points Added (EPA), which provides a truer picture of the value of each play on defense and offense, the Texans still rank as the toughest defense in the league with a total EPA of -130.9. In other words, the Texans’ defense prevented almost 131 points that opponents would have otherwise scored. The Broncos ranked seventh with -92.09, and the Chargers eighth at -84.28.

If Maye and the Patriots get to the Super Bowl, they will face either the Seattle Seahawks or Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks have the second-ranked defense as measured by EPA (-129.62). The Rams rank 10th (-66.60).

Critics like Newton have claimed that the Patriots have been lucky, facing teams depleted by injuries, but that is often the case for NFL playoff teams. Newton’s 2015 Super Bowl team, for example, started the playoffs with a bye week, the easiest path of all. After that, Newton faced the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, “a team with an injured star, and then met a quarterback who threw four interceptions,” as NESN.com writer Evan Cormier noted.

The Road Ahead for the Patriots

As the Patriots prepare for the Super Bowl, their journey has proven to be anything but easy. From overcoming tough defenses to navigating a challenging schedule, the team has shown resilience and determination. With Drake Maye leading the way, the Patriots are poised to make history once again.

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