The Big Matchup: BYU vs. Arizona

BYU-Arizona is one of the most anticipated games in Marriott Center history. Arizona comes into the game undefeated and ranked #1 in the nation, while BYU is ranked #13. AJ Dybantsa, who recently put up a 43-point performance, will be looking to lead his team to a signature win that could help build a strong resume for the NCAA Tournament. This game is ESPN’s first “Big Monday” of the college basketball season. Additionally, it marks the 15-year anniversary of BYU’s historic win over San Diego State in a top 10 matchup, where Jimmer Fredette scored 43 points.

The game is scheduled to tip off Monday night at 7pm MT on ESPN.

Key Stats: Arizona vs. BYU

Arizona
– KenPom: 1
– NET Ranking: 1
– Record: 20-0
– Best Wins: Florida (N), UCLA (N), UConn (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (N), San Diego St (N), TCU (A), UCF (A), West Virginia (H)
– Losses: None
– AP Ranking: 1

BYU
– KenPom: 15
– NET Ranking: 12
– Record: 17-2
– AP Ranking: 13
– KenPom Prediction: Arizona 82, BYU 80 — BYU 40% win probability
– Point Spread: Arizona -3.5
– Point Total: 163.5

Arizona’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Arizona is currently the top-ranked team in the country, and their dominance is reflected in both their stats and their performance. They have a balanced team with an 8-man rotation, where their top 7 scorers average between 8.9 and 14.7 ppg. All eight players average at least 15 minutes per game, and no one averages more than 30. The Wildcats have three All-Conference caliber bigs who rotate in and out, providing effectiveness on the low block and the glass.

Arizona’s offense focuses on dominating the paint and getting to the free throw line. They are among the best in the Big 12 at getting to the line, thanks to their three active bigs. Their starting guards can get to the rim and are good at creating shots. Despite playing at a fast pace, Arizona’s reliance on inside play means they don’t depend much on the three-point shot.

Arizona shoots the fewest threes in the Big 12, with only 25% of their field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. In comparison, BYU shoots 40% of its field goals from three, which is middle of the pack nationally. Arizona’s three-point shooting has been inconsistent, with a 33.6% rate in Big 12 play, ranking them 10th in the conference. However, this hasn’t hindered their success, as they continue to dominate by an average of 19 points in conference games.

Players to Watch

Koa Peat, Forward
– A 6-foot-8 freshman and starting four man, Peat leads Arizona with 14.7 ppg.
– He doesn’t take many threes but excels around the basket, often posting up or creating action within the offense.
– Has two 20+ point games in Big 12 play.

Brayden Burries, Guard
– A 6-foot-4 freshman, Burries is Arizona’s biggest three-point threat, averaging 4.6 attempts per game and shooting 36%.
– Recently had a 4-8 three-point performance against West Virginia.
– Adds offensive pop to Arizona’s attack.

Motiejus Krivas, Center
– A 7-foot-2 center, Krivas averages 11.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and leads the team with 1.8 blocks per game.
– Known for his rebounding ability and defensive presence.

Jaden Bradley, Guard
– A senior point guard, Bradley averages 13.5 points and leads the team with 4.5 assists and 1.9 steals.
– Often the go-to player in crunch time, though he struggles from three-point range.

Tobe Awaka, Forward/Center
– A 6-foot-8 sixth man, Awaka leads Arizona with 9.8 rebounds per game.
– Excels at offensive rebounding and cleaning up missed shots.

Prediction and Key Factors

Arizona has a strong record and has proven themselves as the top team in the country. However, this game presents a challenge for them, as BYU is one of the few teams in the KenPom top 40 that they’ve faced so far in conference play. The travel schedule also plays a role, as Arizona has played three games in a short span and will face BYU just two days after a game.

BYU’s strength lies in their offensive rebounding, which is the best in the Big 12. Arizona’s bigs have the potential to limit BYU’s second-chance points. For BYU to win, they need to hit shots, especially from three-point range. If they can spread out Arizona’s defense, it will open up opportunities for AJ Dybantsa and other key players.

Two key x-factors for BYU are Khadim Mboup and Abdullah Ahmed. Mboup’s size and athleticism could provide a better matchup against Arizona’s bigs, while Ahmed’s energy and rebounding could make a difference on the glass.

Brayden Burries is another critical player for Arizona. If BYU can limit his efficiency and outside shooting, they may be able to pack the paint and slow down Arizona’s offense. The crowd in Provo will be electric, and while Arizona is expected to win, the game could be close.

Prediction: Arizona 84, BYU 82