NFL Playoff Picture Projections

As the Week 18 of the regular season came to a close, the final standings for both the NFC and AFC were set. SportifyAnalytics provided live projections throughout the games, combining in-game win probabilities with their Football Power Index (FPI) season projections. This allowed for real-time updates on each team’s chances of making the playoffs. The results are now finalized, showcasing how teams performed across both conferences.

Final NFC Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff picture is now clear, with all 14 teams locked in. Each team’s probability of making the playoffs, winning their division, and securing the No. 1 seed is displayed. Here’s a breakdown of the standings:

• 0-20%: Teams with minimal chances.
• 20-40%: Teams with some hope but not strong contenders.
• 40-60%: Teams with moderate chances.
• 60-80%: Teams with strong chances.
• 80-100%: Teams that are almost certain to make the playoffs.

Team rankings and probabilities are listed below, showing which teams have secured spots and which are still in contention.

Final AFC Playoff Picture

Similarly, the AFC playoff picture has been finalized. The same percentage ranges apply, highlighting the likelihood of each team making the playoffs. The standings include details on which teams have won their divisions and secured top seeds.

• 0-20%: Teams with minimal chances.
• 20-40%: Teams with some hope but not strong contenders.
• 40-60%: Teams with moderate chances.
• 60-80%: Teams with strong chances.
• 80-100%: Teams that are almost certain to make the playoffs.

Again, team rankings and probabilities are included, providing a clear view of the AFC standings.

Tracking Week 18 Races

With the regular season over, all 14 playoff teams have been determined. Several tight races unfolded during Week 18, and here’s how they played out:

How the Steelers Won the AFC North

The Steelers clinched the AFC North by defeating the Ravens in a crucial matchup. With this win, they secured the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh will host the Texans in the first round, while Baltimore heads into the offseason.

How the Broncos Won the AFC 1-Seed

The Broncos secured the top seed in the AFC after defeating the Chargers. This gives them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They finished the season with a record of 14-3, with the Patriots as the 2-seed and the Jaguars as the 3-seed.

How the Jaguars Won the AFC South

The Jaguars claimed the AFC South title by defeating the Titans. This marks their first division win since 2022. Jacksonville will host the Bills in the first round, while the Texans fall to a wild-card berth and face the Steelers.

How the Panthers Won the NFC South

The Panthers secured the NFC South title after the Falcons defeated the Saints. Despite a brief playoff push from the Buccaneers, they were eliminated due to tiebreakers. The Panthers will enter the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, while the Buccaneers finish out of the postseason.

Looking Ahead

While 14 teams have made the playoffs, 18 others begin their offseasons. These teams will focus on personnel decisions, coaching evaluations, trade negotiations, and free agency. Additionally, the 2026 NFL draft is on the horizon, with 28 teams having the chance to select top prospects.

Projected 2026 NFL Draft Order

The draft order for the bottom 18 teams is now projected. The Raiders hold the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the Jets, Cardinals, Titans, and Giants. Some first-round picks have already been traded, including the Falcons’ pick going to the Rams, the Jaguars’ to the Browns, the Colts’ to the Jets, and the Packers’ to the Cowboys.

Here is the full list of projected draft slots:

• 0-20%: Teams with lower chances of selecting early.
• 20-40%: Teams with some potential for higher picks.
• 40-60%: Teams with moderate chances.
• 60-80%: Teams with strong chances.
• 80-100%: Teams that are likely to secure high picks.

Methodology

Playoff probabilities are updated in real-time based on SportifyAnalytics’ live win probabilities and FPI projections. These probabilities consider factors such as score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team strength, and game location. The FPI simulations also project the final standings and the top 18 picks in the 2026 draft.

More NFL Coverage

For more insights into the NFL playoffs, check out the following:

• First look at the NFL playoff field
• Schedule for wild-card games
• Guide to the NFL offseason for eliminated teams
• See the 2026 NFL draft order

Produced by SportifyCreative Studio: Nick Devlin, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Rami Moghadam, Munehito Sawada, and Garrett Siegel.

Illustrations by MASA. SportifyAnalytics: Henry Gargiulo, Matt Morris, and Lauren Poe.