NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18 Update

Every week throughout the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates on the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture. These updates typically begin on Sunday afternoon and continue through the rest of the week, covering Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. During holidays, we’ll also keep a close eye on developments.

What just happened? What does it mean for the playoff race? What are the key factors and tiebreakers at play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to take shape? All these questions will be addressed until the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, January 4.

Here’s where things stand with Week 18 underway:

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Seattle Seahawks (14-3), NFC West Champions:

A massive win in Silicon Valley on Saturday night ensured they remain at home in the Pacific Northwest — unless they make it to Super Bowl 60. Their remaining schedule is TBD.

2. Chicago Bears (11-5), NFC North Champions:

Green Bay’s loss in Week 17 secured the division title for the Bears. However, their narrow defeat in San Francisco means they can’t do better than the No. 2 seed. The Bears could face the Packers in the wild-card round.

Remaining schedule: vs. Lions

3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), NFC East Champions:

They still have a chance to reach the second seed, which brought them to the Super Bowl last season. Philly became the first team this season to clinch a division in 2025 and the first to win this division in consecutive years since 2004.

Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9), NFC South Leaders:

The Bucs beat the Panthers on Saturday, giving them an advantage over Carolina via the common-games tiebreaker. However, if the Falcons win on Sunday and create a three-way tie, the Panthers’ superior record in games involving those three teams would give them the division.

Remaining schedule: TBD

5. San Francisco 49ers (12-5), Wild Card No. 1:

They had a chance to stay home for the next month, but now they could fall as low as the sixth seed.

Remaining schedule: TBD

6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5), Wild Card No. 2:

The Rams were the first team to secure a playoff spot but lost the path to home-field advantage and a first-round bye after consecutive losses. They can settle for the fifth seed by beating Arizona.

Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals

7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1), Wild Card No. 3:

The Lions’ Christmas defeat put the Packers into the playoffs. However, a Week 17 loss to Baltimore locked them in as the No. 7 seed and means they won’t play another game at Lambeau Field this season.

Remaining schedule: at Vikings

10. Carolina Panthers (8-9), in the Hunt:

They’re behind eliminated Minnesota and Detroit, both at 8-8, in the overall conference standings. A win by Atlanta on Sunday would grant the NFC South crown to Carolina.

Remaining schedule: TBD

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West Champions:

After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night, a win in Week 18 would secure the top seed. The Chargers’ Week 17 loss wrapped up the Broncos’ first division title in a decade — also the last time they won the Super Bowl. The Chargers seem content to rest their top players, including QB Justin Herbert, on Sunday in Denver.

Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers

2. New England Patriots (13-3), AFC East Champions:

After defeating the Jets last weekend, they secured their first division title since 2019 when Buffalo lost to Philadelphia. The Pats are just one tiebreaker (common games) away from sitting atop the conference and could get the top seed in Week 18 if they win and Denver loses.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), AFC South Leaders:

They’ve won eight straight but need one more victory to lock up the division. A win combined with defeats for Denver and New England would land the No. 1 seed in Duval County. Losing would allow Houston to retain the AFC South.

Remaining schedule: at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), AFC North Leaders:

They failed to win the division crown at Cleveland. Now they’ll have to beat Baltimore in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens

5. Houston Texans (11-5), Wild Card No. 1:

They’ve won nine of 10, including eight in a row after last Saturday’s triumph over the Chargers. However, they haven’t been able to overtake Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Still, that victory over the Bolts secured at least a wild-card berth for Houston, which has a shot to win the division for a third straight season — needing just a Week 18 win and a loss by the Jags. The Texans’ sweep of the Chargers and Bills currently has them sitting in the fifth seed.

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts

6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), Wild Card No. 2:

Last weekend’s stumble against Houston ended their bid to rally for the AFC West title. Now the Bolts will have to chart their postseason path as a wild-card entrant, which is why Herbert won’t play in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: at Broncos

7. Buffalo Bills (11-5), Wild Card No. 3:

Sunday’s narrow loss to Philadelphia wiped out their hopes of a sixth straight AFC East title. The Bills fall to the seventh spot due to the Chargers’ two-game advantage (5-1) in the common-games tiebreaker.

Remaining schedule: vs. Jets

9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8), in the Hunt:

The eliminated Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC. Their Week 17 win at Green Bay plus Pittsburgh’s loss means the Steelers and Ravens will vie for the AFC North crown on Sunday night.

Remaining schedule: at Steelers

NFL Playoff-Clinching Scenarios for Week 18

• Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
  
  Win OR Tie + Patriots loss or tie OR Patriots loss + Jaguars loss or tie

• New England clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
  
  Win + Broncos loss or tie OR Tie + Broncos loss

• Jacksonville clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
  
  ▶ Win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss

• Jacksonville clinches AFC South with:
  
  Win or tie OR Texans loss or tie

• Houston clinches AFC South with:
  
  ▶ Win + Jaguars loss

• Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
  
  ▶ Win or tie

• Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
  
  ▶ Win

• Carolina clinches NFC South with:
  
  ▶ Falcons win

• Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:
  
  ▶ Falcons loss or tie

NFL Teams Eliminated from Playoff Contention in 2025

• New York Giants
• Arizona Cardinals
• New Orleans Saints
• Tennessee Titans
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Washington Commanders
• Atlanta Falcons
• New York Jets
• Cleveland Browns
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Minnesota Vikings
• Miami Dolphins
• Dallas Cowboys
• Detroit Lions
• Indianapolis Colts

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division

z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye

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