The Early January College Basketball Season

Christmas may be over, but for many, the excitement of college basketball begins in early January. With conference play kicking off, fans are eagerly anticipating the matchups that will shape the season. As Ice Cube famously said, “Today [is] a good day.” This sentiment is especially true for Texas as they prepare to face Mississippi State in their first SEC game of the season.

Mississippi State’s Roster and Challenges

Mississippi State enters the game with an 8-5 record, showcasing a mix of strong performances and some questionable losses. Despite these challenges, the Bulldogs have talent on their roster. Led by all-SEC guard Josh Hubbard, who averages 21.3 points per game, the team has a formidable offensive threat. Hubbard’s ability as an off-the-bounce shooter makes him a key player, even though he is undersized at 5-foot-10.

Outside of Hubbard, the team relies on Jayden Epps, a 6-foot-2 guard averaging 15.9 points per game. However, the lack of size in the backcourt means that bigger perimeter players like Tramon Mark and Simeon Wilcher can take advantage.

On the defensive end, 7-footer Quincy Ballard leads the team in rebounding with 7.5 per game, while versatile wing Shawn Jones serves as a defensive menace. Ja’Borri McGhee adds another dimension with his shooting ability, hitting 44.7% from beyond the arc.

Chris Jans’ Offensive Game Plan

Chris Jans’ offensive strategy for Mississippi State revolves around a four-out system that emphasizes spacing and simple entry actions. The team uses dribble handoffs and high ball screens to get the defense moving and force mistakes. This approach is not flashy but effective, as several players are asked to make reads rather than relying on a single lead initiator.

The offense focuses on getting shots at the rim, with exceptions for elite scorers like Hubbard, who has the green light from almost anywhere. The rest of the team attacks the basket aggressively, which contributes to their ability to secure rebounds. Mississippi State ranks 40th in total rebounds, highlighting their strength on both ends of the floor.

Chris Jans’ Defensive Game Plan

Jans is known for his aggressive man-to-man defense with heavy ball pressure. The defense relies on help defense, focusing on disrupting the opponent’s rhythm rather than taking unnecessary risks. Off the ball, the defense stunts heavily and jumps into passing lanes, requiring quick recovery. They aim to wear out the opposing offense by forcing them into multiple directions.

The close outs are short, aiming to force a pass away rather than contest the shot. This approach allows defenders to maintain verticality and contest shots without fouling. While it is not a “no middle” defense, it is designed to get in an opponent’s head, forcing hesitations and making them question their decisions.

How Texas Stacks Up

To counter Mississippi State’s defense, Texas is likely to start many possessions with Miller action stacks, aiming to disrupt the rhythm of the Bulldogs’ defense. They will also look to attack in transition and use drag screens before the defense is set. These strategies could help neutralize the pressure without turning the game into a free-for-all.

Texas will also focus on getting the ball inside to Matas Vokietaitis, aiming to score easily and get Ballard into foul trouble. By taking out Ballard, Texas can exploit the middle of the floor more effectively. The Longhorns will also capitalize on their size advantage, using midrange post-ups to take advantage of the size discrepancy.

Defensively, Texas will aim to clog passing lanes and recover quickly to prevent open looks from deep. Given Hubbard’s strengths, the team may need to adjust their defense to account for his shotmaking skills.

Prediction

Texas is a heavy favorite over Mississippi State, with a 9.5-point spread entering the game. However, this spread may be overkill, as both teams have shown struggles this season. Mississippi State has the potential to get hot behind Hubbard and Epps, making them a viable underdog.

For those interested in betting, the value is certainly there for Mississippi State +350 on the money line, and an over/under of 156.5. While I predict a Texas victory, I would be surprised if they cover and win by double digits. KenPom predicts an 83-75 win for the Longhorns, but I see a lower-scoring game overall.

Predicted score: Texas 75, Mississippi State 70.