The Week 18 NFL Showdowns: A Look at the Good, Bad, and Ugly

Enough of the playoff pictures and hypotheticals. Let’s get to the results.

On Saturday, the Buccaneers started the Week 18 action, beating the Panthers, 16–14. As a result, Tampa Bay and Carolina are both atop the NFC South at 8–9. The division, ironically, will come down to the other two teams, with the Falcons hosting the Saints on Sunday. If Atlanta wins, Carolina will be the NFC South champ. If New Orleans pulls the upset, it will give Tampa Bay the title.

In Saturday’s second game, the 49ers will host the Seahawks with the winner not only taking the NFC West title but also the NFC’s top seed. If San Francisco wins, it has a chance to win the Super Bowl playing every game at home at Levi’s Stadium.

On Sunday, the big game is in prime time with the preeminent AFC North rivalry. It’ll be John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, and the Ravens and Steelers at Acrisure Stadium for the division title and the AFC’s fourth seed, while the loser will be eliminated.

But we start with Tampa Bay and Carolina, playing through the rain to earn a playoff spot.

Good: Tampa Bay Giving Itself a Chance of Avoiding Total Embarrassment

The Buccaneers looked like a contender at 3–0 to start the year, with Baker Mayfield getting some early-season MVP talk. Then things fell apart. Tampa Bay lost nine of its next 13 games, including seven of eight down the stretch. With a loss on Saturday in their rain-soaked home stadium, the Buccaneers would have been eliminated from postseason contention while questions would have rained down on whether coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht deserved to return for 2026.

With the 16–14 victory, Tampa Bay isn’t out of trouble. The Buccaneers still need the Saints to beat the Falcons in Atlanta, which wouldn’t qualify as a massive upset but more a mild surprise. If Tampa Bay makes the playoffs, the season is still underwhelming based on preseason expectations (yours truly picked the Bucs to reach the NFC title game) but at least Tampa Bay would be the division champion for a fifth consecutive season.

Ultimately, Tampa Bay should be embarrassed by how the last two-thirds of this season has gone, even with injuries to receivers Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, running back Bucky Irving and others throughout the year. But the Week 18 win shows some gumption for a team that appeared comatose last weekend in a loss to the Quinn Ewers–led Dolphins.

Bad: Carolina’s Run Game Abandoned It at the Wrong Time

The Panthers entered the weekend having rushed for 1,958 yards, 11th most in the league. The ground attack has been buoyed by Rico Dowdle, a soon-to-be free agent on a one-year deal who rushed for 1,066 yards on 4.7 yards per attempt. But on Saturday, with a playoff berth and division title on the line, the Panthers couldn’t find a yard. Dowdle carried seven times for 10 yards while Chuba Hubbard matched him on five attempts. All told, Carolina rushed for 19 yards on 14 attempts while facing the 21st-ranked defense in yards per carry at 4.4.

If the Panthers end up in the playoffs, they need to run the ball for any chance of advancement. Carolina can’t rely on Bryce Young, who for the year has thrown for 3,007 yards in 16 games. No quarterback has thrown for less when playing in at least 15 contests.

Give the Panthers credit for finding ways to win all year with a passing game limited to short throws, as Young entered Saturday night with only 33 passes of more than 20 air yards in 2025. But if they play next weekend, their only chance of success will be on the ground.

Ugly: The NFC South Over the Past Four Seasons

It’s been a while since the NFC South produced a team anybody wanted to watch, or thought could win the Super Bowl, come January.

The Buccaneers won their second Super Bowl to cap the 2020 season, with Tom Brady beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, 31–9. The following year, Tampa Bay went 13–4 and lost to the eventual champion Rams in the divisional round.

Since then, it’s been a lousy division with largely lousy results.

Over the past four years, including Saturday’s results, here are the regular-season records of the four NFC South teams:

• Buccaneers: 35–33
• Saints: 27–40
• Falcons: 29–38
• Panthers: 22–46

It’s been bad football, producing only a single playoff victory, coming when Tampa Bay defeated the Eagles in the 2023 wild-card weekend, the season Philadelphia collapsed down the stretch in between Super Bowl appearances. The Buccaneers are the only NFC South team to make the playoffs over the past four seasons (it will be five if Atlanta loses on Sunday), doing so as the No. 4 seed in three of those campaigns.